1 thought on “Trump's first rivals -debt upper limit crisis rolls come again”
Tammy
Huitong.com, January 10th -Trump is about to announce on January 20th. The first problem faced after Trump came to power is not the increase in the market's widely expected fiscal stimuli, but how to face the government expenditure to touch the upper fiscal limit The dilemma of debt crisis is reunion. The debt limit bill is about to expire, which will make the US federal government's risk of default again. On October 30, 2015, the debt limit bill passed by the US Congress is about to expire, and the period of this bill expires on March 16, 2017. . US debt is growing at a record range. M mainstream media news is usually reporting the quality of the US economy. Ordinary investors also think that the US government's budget is sufficient, which can continuously increase fiscal stimuli and boost the economy. But the opposite is the opposite. Despite so many news that the US economy improves, the government is still accumulating debts at a record speed. The fastest expansion of US federal debt is at the fastest speed since the financial crisis, which is one of the fastest growth rates in American history. Mainstream media news usually reports the quality of the US economy, including the economy continues to grow under normal state, and the unemployment rate is declining. But these media ignored the continuous growth of US debt.
: The trend of the growth of public debt in the United States
: The scale of the growth of US debt The US Treasury Department continues to issue debt on the basis of the current scale of about $ 18 trillion. The fiscal expenditure budget of fiscal year 2016 was reduced by 50 billion US dollars, and the fiscal expenditure budget in fiscal 2017 increased by 30 billion U.S. dollars. If this trend, the upper limit of debt in the United States will continue to increase, let alone Trump spend more finance in economic construction. The first two annual debt growth in the United States history occurred in 2009 and 2010, respectively, and it was the peak period of the financial crisis. If the growth rate of debt has increased significantly, especially Trump ’s plan to increase fiscal stimulus, will this implies that a new financial crisis will erupt again? . The upper limit of the debt has made the United States slip several times in the past few decades to the edge of the breach of contract During the September and October 2013, the two parties of the United States Congress were "how to increase the debt limit to meet the upper limit of debt to meet the satisfaction to satisfy the debt limit to meet The dispute on the issue of fiscal expenditure has caused the US federal government to have no money to spend more than half a month, which has a great impact on the United States. Now that the debt in the United States is about to reach the upper limit, the crisis of the government's closure will be staged again in the United States. In analysis to scoff at the growing model of debt. This legal borrowing limit mechanism established in order to promote the efficiency of the borrowing of the Ministry of Finance has transformed into a dilapidated and outdated system. Can it meet the needs of the United States? Intersection ICK LEW, the current Minister of Finance of the United States, called on Congress to cancel the legal loan limit when he was about to leave. It should be strengthened. If this is a foreseeable natural disaster, it should consolidate the infrastructure to reduce this risk. " . As a result, the cost of borrowing has increased Since the 1990s, Congress has caused the government to face the threat of substantial breach of contract several times, resulting in increasing borrowing costs, unstable financial, and even once directly caused US sovereign credit rating. If data from the US Audit Office showed that the debt limit crisis in 2011 led to the increase in borrowing costs of the Ministry of Finance increased by 1 billion to $ 1.7 billion. The increase in interest costs must eventually be repaid by increasing taxes, so it is eventually borne by the taxpayer. 2. The threat of debt defaults is obvious risk The United States cannot repay the old debt by raising new debts, making the threat of debt defaults the most obvious risk. Debt defaults may pose an unacceptable threat to the stability of the financial system. The investors from all over the world rely on U.S. Treasury bonds as an effective risk -free asset. Once the risk of US debt default increases, this will bring great risks to the stability of the global financial system. The cost of borrowing will increase significantly, and the stability of the entire financial system will no longer exist. 3, the politicalization of the debt limit problem will also threaten US security In order to prevent the upper limit of debt become a "bottomless hole", while increasing the debt limit, the United States must reached an agreement on how to adjust the fiscal expenditure on how to adjust the fiscal expenditure. Essence Because the two -party policy stance is very different, and the interest groups represented by the other are also different, the fiscal budget of the reduction of the fiscal budget has actually become the struggle between the two parties in political resources. The thorough politicalization of the debt limit problem is a threat to the security of the United States: the means of controlling the budget, which has evolved into a vain platform. A narrow party agenda. . The upper limit of debt in the United States will eventually be raised again, but it is always a financial stable timing bomb. In continuous quarrels, the US Congress will re -renew the new bill to increase debt limit after all. However, the crisis of US debt limits ended in the end. The upper limit of debt and the domestic political crisis caused by it will explode like timely bombs.
: Green line is US public debt, the blue line is the US macroeconomic accident index
When the economic situation is good, this will balance debt growth and economic growth, but if the economic growth rate of the United States slows down, the risk of debt issues will be exposed rapidly. In American borrowing is criticized by the mode of maintaining economic operation, coupled with the continuous intensification of the internal fighting of the Democratic Republican parties, it undoubtedly weakened its dominance in the international financial system and eventually lost. It is the international market's trust in the United States. The analysis of Huitong.com believes that the scale of U.S. debt continues to expand is an inevitable implementation of Keynesianism and the implementation of expansion fiscal policies. The United States should maintain the role of the US dollar in the world's dominant position and enter goods while continuously exporting currency. The United States will promote economic growth through debt. US debt will not default because the United States can print banknotes, but at some point in the future, the United States will face soaring interest rates, crisis and malignant inflation in the US dollar, which is unwilling to see.
Huitong.com, January 10th -Trump is about to announce on January 20th. The first problem faced after Trump came to power is not the increase in the market's widely expected fiscal stimuli, but how to face the government expenditure to touch the upper fiscal limit The dilemma of debt crisis is reunion.
The debt limit bill is about to expire, which will make the US federal government's risk of default again. On October 30, 2015, the debt limit bill passed by the US Congress is about to expire, and the period of this bill expires on March 16, 2017.
. US debt is growing at a record range.
M mainstream media news is usually reporting the quality of the US economy. Ordinary investors also think that the US government's budget is sufficient, which can continuously increase fiscal stimuli and boost the economy. But the opposite is the opposite. Despite so many news that the US economy improves, the government is still accumulating debts at a record speed.
The fastest expansion of US federal debt is at the fastest speed since the financial crisis, which is one of the fastest growth rates in American history. Mainstream media news usually reports the quality of the US economy, including the economy continues to grow under normal state, and the unemployment rate is declining. But these media ignored the continuous growth of US debt.
: The trend of the growth of public debt in the United States
: The scale of the growth of US debt
The US Treasury Department continues to issue debt on the basis of the current scale of about $ 18 trillion. The fiscal expenditure budget of fiscal year 2016 was reduced by 50 billion US dollars, and the fiscal expenditure budget in fiscal 2017 increased by 30 billion U.S. dollars. If this trend, the upper limit of debt in the United States will continue to increase, let alone Trump spend more finance in economic construction.
The first two annual debt growth in the United States history occurred in 2009 and 2010, respectively, and it was the peak period of the financial crisis. If the growth rate of debt has increased significantly, especially Trump ’s plan to increase fiscal stimulus, will this implies that a new financial crisis will erupt again?
. The upper limit of the debt has made the United States slip several times in the past few decades to the edge of the breach of contract
During the September and October 2013, the two parties of the United States Congress were "how to increase the debt limit to meet the upper limit of debt to meet the satisfaction to satisfy the debt limit to meet The dispute on the issue of fiscal expenditure has caused the US federal government to have no money to spend more than half a month, which has a great impact on the United States. Now that the debt in the United States is about to reach the upper limit, the crisis of the government's closure will be staged again in the United States.
In analysis to scoff at the growing model of debt. This legal borrowing limit mechanism established in order to promote the efficiency of the borrowing of the Ministry of Finance has transformed into a dilapidated and outdated system. Can it meet the needs of the United States? Intersection
ICK LEW, the current Minister of Finance of the United States, called on Congress to cancel the legal loan limit when he was about to leave. It should be strengthened. If this is a foreseeable natural disaster, it should consolidate the infrastructure to reduce this risk. "
. As a result, the cost of borrowing has increased
Since the 1990s, Congress has caused the government to face the threat of substantial breach of contract several times, resulting in increasing borrowing costs, unstable financial, and even once directly caused US sovereign credit rating.
If data from the US Audit Office showed that the debt limit crisis in 2011 led to the increase in borrowing costs of the Ministry of Finance increased by 1 billion to $ 1.7 billion. The increase in interest costs must eventually be repaid by increasing taxes, so it is eventually borne by the taxpayer.
2. The threat of debt defaults is obvious risk
The United States cannot repay the old debt by raising new debts, making the threat of debt defaults the most obvious risk. Debt defaults may pose an unacceptable threat to the stability of the financial system.
The investors from all over the world rely on U.S. Treasury bonds as an effective risk -free asset. Once the risk of US debt default increases, this will bring great risks to the stability of the global financial system. The cost of borrowing will increase significantly, and the stability of the entire financial system will no longer exist.
3, the politicalization of the debt limit problem will also threaten US security
In order to prevent the upper limit of debt become a "bottomless hole", while increasing the debt limit, the United States must reached an agreement on how to adjust the fiscal expenditure on how to adjust the fiscal expenditure. Essence Because the two -party policy stance is very different, and the interest groups represented by the other are also different, the fiscal budget of the reduction of the fiscal budget has actually become the struggle between the two parties in political resources.
The thorough politicalization of the debt limit problem is a threat to the security of the United States: the means of controlling the budget, which has evolved into a vain platform. A narrow party agenda.
. The upper limit of debt in the United States will eventually be raised again, but it is always a financial stable timing bomb.
In continuous quarrels, the US Congress will re -renew the new bill to increase debt limit after all. However, the crisis of US debt limits ended in the end. The upper limit of debt and the domestic political crisis caused by it will explode like timely bombs.
: Green line is US public debt, the blue line is the US macroeconomic accident index
When the economic situation is good, this will balance debt growth and economic growth, but if the economic growth rate of the United States slows down, the risk of debt issues will be exposed rapidly.
In American borrowing is criticized by the mode of maintaining economic operation, coupled with the continuous intensification of the internal fighting of the Democratic Republican parties, it undoubtedly weakened its dominance in the international financial system and eventually lost. It is the international market's trust in the United States.
The analysis of Huitong.com believes that the scale of U.S. debt continues to expand is an inevitable implementation of Keynesianism and the implementation of expansion fiscal policies. The United States should maintain the role of the US dollar in the world's dominant position and enter goods while continuously exporting currency. The United States will promote economic growth through debt. US debt will not default because the United States can print banknotes, but at some point in the future, the United States will face soaring interest rates, crisis and malignant inflation in the US dollar, which is unwilling to see.